S.F. CUSTOS GLOBAL REACH — INTELLIGENCE DIVISION
Publications & Archive
English is the primary publication language. Each card opens the English PDF directly in the browser and provides separate downloads for English and German PDF versions.
SPECIAL REPORTS & ANALYSIS
After Quantico: US Defence Reform Between Directive and Delivery
Revised edition, 8 October 2026. The six Quantico initiatives of 30 September 2026: what was ordered, what was claimed and what still depends on Congress, with scenarios and recommended actions for organisations.
AI Agents Under Incomplete Control: Security Exposure for Organisations
Revised edition, 8 October 2026. How AI agents that act through real accounts change corporate security exposure: control failures, late incident notice, what formal research results do and do not show, and planning scenarios for organisations.
Darfur’s Western Spillover: Chad, Sudan’s War and the Security Pressure on Central Africa
Assessment of how Sudan’s war and Darfur displacement are reshaping border, aid, convoy and state-capacity risks in Chad and Central Africa.
Ceuta as Europe’s Pressure Valve: Morocco, Border Security and Western Mediterranean Migration Risk
Assessment of Ceuta and Melilla as pressure points where migration, Spain-Morocco relations, local disorder risk and EU border management converge.
Cartel Convergence in the Andes: Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela and Drone-Enabled Organised Crime
Assessment of how Ecuadorian gangs, Colombian armed networks and Venezuelan criminal structures are converging across routes, prisons, ports and low-cost technology.
Russian Strike Adaptation: Faster Drones, Glide Bombs and Ukraine’s Narrowing Defence Window
Assessment of Russian strike adaptation, faster drone variants, glide-bomb pressure and the operational consequences for Ukraine and European security planning.
Hormuz Under Pressure: Energy War, Iran and the New Geopolitics of Bypass Infrastructure
Assessment of Hormuz energy-security risk, Iranian coercive leverage and the strategic value and vulnerability of bypass infrastructure.
Europe Needs America: NATO, Ukraine and the Limits of Strategic Autonomy
Assessment of Europe’s strategic autonomy debate, NATO burden-sharing and the enduring role of American power in Ukraine and European deterrence.
Iran’s Dangerous Pause: Nuclear Uncertainty, Hormuz Leverage and the Risk of Renewed Escalation
A client-facing SFC Special Report assessing Iran’s unstable late-July pause: nuclear verification gaps, Strait of Hormuz leverage, same-day sanctions pressure, and re-escalation risk for travel, maritime, compliance and executive-security decisions.
Axis of Pressure: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as a Coordinated Security Risk
Assessment of how cooperation between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea can translate into operational security, travel, infrastructure and business-continuity risk for exposed organisations.
Iran, Hormuz and the Cost of Maritime Control
Assessment of the U.S.-Iran maritime-control contest around the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for commercial shipping, energy flows, insurance, travel risk and corporate crisis planning.
Europe Without Assumptions: Hodges on NATO, Ukraine and the Burden Shift
Assessment of Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges' current public signal on NATO burden shift, Ukraine, European defence readiness and implications for Europe-linked organisations.
Ukraine as the Test Case: Petraeus on the Future of Warfare and Corporate Risk
Assessment of Petraeus’ current Ukraine/future-warfare signal: unmanned systems, command-and-control ecosystems, autonomy, counter-UAS exposure and corporate resilience implications.
War at Sea: Commercial Shipping Risk from the Caribbean to Hormuz
Assessment of multi-theatre maritime escalation risk affecting commercial shipping, energy flows, insurance, compliance and crew duty of care from the Caribbean to the Strait of Hormuz.
Petraeus’s Strategic Risk Lens: Coalition Discipline, Cyber Exposure and China Deterrence
Assessment of Petraeus’s strategic risk lens for organisations exposed to coalition friction, cyber supply-chain compromise and U.S.–China deterrence risk.
Cuba under growing pressure: sanctions, domestic tensions and risks for international actors
Assessment of sanctions, domestic tensions and operational risk for companies, travelers, NGOs and diplomatic actors in Cuba.
US-Iran MOU vs JCPOA: Gulf security implications
Assessment of the reported US-Iran MOU, Hormuz maritime risk, sanctions uncertainty and regional escalation scenarios.
NATO’s New Defence Investment Baseline and the Security Implications for Europe-Linked Organisations
Assessment of NATO’s new defence investment baseline, the Russia-driven European security posture and the implications for companies with Europe-linked exposure.
The Ukraine war and NATO’s eastern flank: risks for infrastructure, the Baltic Sea and companies
Assessment of infrastructure, Baltic Sea, logistics, energy, data-link and personnel risks around Ukraine and NATO's eastern flank.
Taiwan and maritime supply-chain risk in the Indo-Pacific
Assessment of Taiwan-related maritime and supply-chain risk for shipping, semiconductor exposure and business travel.
Maritime security in the Persian Gulf: risks for shipping, energy and companies
Operational assessment of shipping, energy and corporate exposure in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Extended deterrence under pressure: Japan, South Korea and the debate over nuclear autonomy
Assessment of alliance credibility, nuclear autonomy debates and operational exposure for companies in Japan and South Korea.
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and regional security risks
Assessment of maritime, energy, personnel and business risk linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
WEEKLY SECURITY BRIEFINGS
Weekly Security Briefing — W42 | 5–11 October 2026
Global security developments for 5–11 October 2026: maritime incidents, cyber exposure and regional business implications.
Weekly Security Briefing — 2026-W41
This week’s briefing assesses tanker attacks reported by UKMTO in Hormuz, renewed Russian strikes on Kyiv’s energy system, the Taiz–Aden road disruption, maritime coercion near Philippine-held islands and actively exploited access-appliance vulnerabilities.
Weekly Security Briefing — 21–28 September 2026
Assessment of the week’s principal security developments across maritime, conflict, cyber, humanitarian and organised-crime risk.
Weekly Security Briefing — 14–21 September 2026
Assessment of the week’s principal security developments across maritime, conflict, cyber, humanitarian and disaster-recovery risk.
Weekly Security Briefing — 7–14 September 2026
Assessment of the week’s principal security developments across maritime, conflict, cyber, humanitarian and election-security risk.
Weekly Security Briefing — 31 August–7 September 2026
Assessment of the week’s principal security developments across maritime, conflict, cyber, humanitarian and organised-crime risk.
Weekly Security Briefing — KW 36 / 2026
Weekly assessment covering Red Sea and Gulf of Aden maritime exposure, cyber exploitation of business systems, African public-health and state-capacity pressure, Myanmar civilian-control risk and organised-crime capability shifts in Latin America.
Weekly Security Briefing — KW 35 / 2026
Weekly assessment covering maritime corridor pressure, Russian energy infrastructure, Korean Peninsula exercises, African state-capacity risks, cartel convergence in Latin America and current ransomware advisories.
Weekly Security Briefing — 3–10 August 2026
W33 was led by Ukrainian pressure on Russian energy infrastructure, Houthi strikes around al-Makha, armed-group mass in Mali and Nigeria, Korean Peninsula exercise signalling, Colombia security-policy realignment, and cartel/gang pressure in Mexico and Haiti.
Weekly Security Briefing — 10–17 August 2026
This week is led by pressure on Russian energy infrastructure, renewed maritime risk in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, contested state control in parts of Africa, Taiwan and Korea signalling, and a new official ransomware advisory.
Weekly Security Briefing — 28 July–3 August 2026
This week is led by verified cyber exploitation, Russia fuel pressure, fragile Middle East diplomacy, humanitarian access constraints in Africa and criminal-violence pressure in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Weekly Security Briefing — 20–27 July 2026
This week’s briefing covers verified cyber exposure, maritime risk around the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Ukraine F-16 signalling, constrained operating space in Africa, and criminal-violence pressure in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Weekly Security Briefing — 14-20 July 2026
Weekly assessment of Russia-Ukraine manpower pressure, Hormuz maritime exposure, North Korean support to Russia, Sudan/South Sudan constraints, Venezuela continuity risk and active enterprise cyber exploitation.
Weekly Security Briefing — 7–13 July 2026
Weekly global security assessment covering maritime disruption across the Red Sea, Hormuz and the Sea of Azov; organized violence in Haiti and Ecuador; China’s naval activity around Taiwan; and practical cyber exposure in CMS platforms and development pipelines.
Weekly Security Briefing — 29 June–5 July 2026
Weekly global security assessment covering Ukraine, Gulf of Aden piracy, Venezuela, Sudan, cyber threats and Latin America.
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